Automotive Trucks information on net.

New products help. Rendezvous' 61,468 sales pushed total Buick up six points. Without Rendezvous, down one point.

Times change: Small pickups were the top truck segment in the late 1980s, holding 30 percent of all truck sales. In 2002, they were down to nine percent, squeezed by full-size pickups, SUVs and cheap gasoline.

Honda Division cars followed the industry car pattern with a six percent decline. Honda trucks beat the odds with a strong 34 percent gain. Toyota's Lexus lines bucked the trends: cars up 9 percent, trucks gained five.

Of the Japanese brands, Mitsubishi, a seven point gainer, led the ups. lsuzu, off 33 points, led the downs.

Highest volume prestige vehicle: Cadillac Deville, 84,729. Lowest: Lam borghini, 36.

VW Eurovan, up 19 points, Beetle down 24. Total automotive sales in 2002, hyped by marketing programs, exceeded most expectations. Car sales totaled 8.1. million, down four percent Trucks held at 9.0 million, bringing the total to 17.1 million, down two percent.

Most units sold: 813,701 Ford F-Series trucks. Least sold: one Nissan 200SX that survived somehow over the years. That is a 50 percent reduction from the two sold in 2001.

One of Ford's Europeans was out of step. Aston Martin up 61 percent, Land Rover up 51, Jaguar up 37 but with Volvo down 12 points.

Contrary to popular belief, Ford Escort, after 21 years and millions of sales, was still on the market in 2002, racking up 51,857 sales.

Coming in: Mini/Mini Cooper, 24,590 sales. Going out: Daewoo, 21,397.

Names made a difference: Toyota Corolla up three ticks from 254,360 sales, Chevrolet Prizm (above) 14,297 units down 69 ticks and fading out of the picture.

Not all Europeans were golden: Mercedes Trucks down eight percent, Lincoln Trucks up 11 percent.

Not all Japanese vehicles were golden: Acura cars down 13 percent Dodge cars up 6 percent.

High price doesn't hurt, version #2: Prestige sports cars (Corvette, etc.), up 18 points, small sports cars (Mustang, etc.) off 14.

SUVs sell better than sporty cars: BMW X5 (above), 42,742 sales. BMW Z3s (top) and Z4s, 10,490 sales.

Mercedes brand trucks, 42,749 sales. Heavy duty Daimler owned trucks, Freightliner, Sterling and Western Star 91,543.

Staying: Mustang, 138,356 sales.

Fading out: Camaro, 28,404 sales.

Largest segment: upper midsize cars (Camry, etc.) 2,665,393 units.

Smallest segment: large prestige sport utility (Cadillac Escalade, etc.) 83,323.

General Motors: Cars down nine ticks, trucks up six.

Small and economical isn't necessarily a hot item. Toyota Echo, 30,859 units, down 27 percent. Toyota Camry 434,145, up 11 percent.

Cadillac Division turned the long-sought corner. Cars up seven percent, trucks plus 56 percent, total up 16.

Ford Motor Co. imports were up 8 percent, domestics down 10.

Price is not a deterrent: Prestige small cars (BMW 3s, etc.) up 28 percent. Basic small cars (Civic, etc.) down four.

Toyota vehicles went in opposite directions from industry trends. Cars up two points, trucks down two points.

Top five corporate sellers of prestige vehicles.

1. Ford (Lincoln, Jaguar, Volvo, Land Rover, Aston Martin, Thunderbird) 382,490.

2. General Motors, (Cadillac, Saab, Hummer, Corvette) 289,689.

3. Lexus 234,109.

4. BMW 232,032.

5. Mercedes 213,225

The nation's highway network and transportation industry are the engines of the American economy, according to the American Trucking Associations, based in Alexandria, Va. And this year, as usual, the cost of the truck component of that "engine" is heading up--between 2.5 and 5 percent for most 1993 models over 1992 models.

Those percentages for 1993 models are about the same as the rate of price increases posted last year for 1992 trucks, and those increases did not hurt the sales of light, medium, or heavy trucks. In fact, sales in all three weight categories were up for 1992 models.

One explanation for the strength of truck sales is that many firms are replacing their fleets' vehicles at shorter time and mileage intervals than before, according to Runzheimer International, A Rochester, Wis., firm that tracks transportation costs. The reasons, Runzheimer says, are mainly to minimize maintenance costs, emphasize a modern corporate image, and maintain driver morale.

In the light-truck category, minivans--classified as trucks--are growing in popularity for business fleets, while the number of full-size vans in use is decreasing.

Rear-wheel anti-lock braking systems are standard or optional on most 1993 light trucks. More medium and heavy trucks are now available with safety devices that make jack-knifing less likely.

Continued price rises are almost inevitable, largely because of new federal regulations pertaining to safety, fuel economy, and exhaust emissions. According to experts, trucks of all sizes are much safer, more fuel-efficient, and less likely to emit air-polluting substances than previous models.

The Clean Air Act of 1990 tightens emissions standards for fleets of 10 or more vehicles that are fueled in a hub where air pollution is a problem. The requirements are achievable only with alternatively fueled vehicles--those that don't run on diesel fuel or gasoline.

This and other government rules have prompted some truck makers to devote huge resources to developing alternatively fueled vehicles. Some are fueled with compressed natural gas (CNG), others with liquid propane gas (LPG).

Ford Motor Co. has spent $1.7 billion developing alternative-fuel vehicles and recently introduced LPG-run trucks--the medium-heavy F-600-G and F-7--G.

In the 1992 model year, GMC Truck sold 2,000 of the full-size 2500-series 3/4-ton Sierras operating on CNG. They have three 8.75-foot-long natural-gas tanks concealed beneath their bodies, and their range is about 200 miles. For 1993, GMC is adding natural-gas-fueled models of its Sierra 1500 series. Both the 2500 and 1500 vehicles use a natural-gas version of the 5.7-liter V-8 engine.

Chrysler offers a natural-gas-powered, full-size Dodge B-250 van converted in factory production to run on CNG. It features the 5.2-liter V-8 engine

Light Trucks

Here is what's new in the light-truck field of Class 1 (up to 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight, or GVW), Class 2 (6,001 to 10,000 pounds), and Class 3 (10,001 to 14,000 pounds):

Chevrolet. The addition of a new gasoline engine in Chevrolet Motor Division's Class 3 low-cab-forward Tiltmaster makes it the only vehicle of its kind with a gasoline engine. (The low-cab-forward configuration seats the driver ahead of the front axle, provides more cargo space for comparable length of truck, has a shorter turning radius, and offers better visibility as well as easy entrance and exit). The vehicle is nearly identical to Isuzu's NPR EFI, described below.

Dodge. Sales of the full-size Ram 3/4-ton and one-ton pickups zoomed to 30 percent of its diesel market after Dodge offered these vehicles with a 5.9-liter, six-cylinder turbodiesel manufactured by the Cummins Engine Co., in Columbus, Inc. For 1994, Dodge plans to introduce an all-new Dodge Ram powered by a version of the V-10 gasoline engine that makes the new Viper sports car so hot.

Ford. A face-lifted compact Ranger arrives for 1993. The hot-selling vehicle has new sheet metal with aerodynamic styling and a rounded front end. New limousine-style doors improve sealing and reduce wind noise, making the Ranger's interior pleasantly quiet at high speeds. The payload is increased on Regular Cab models, and an optional payload package is available on the SuperCab models.

Ford is readying a midsize pickup for the market, and the company expects to make available turbocharged versions of its 7.3-liter diesel engine.

GMC. In addition to its two factory-produced natural-gas-powered Sierra pickups, GMC's 1993 lineup also includes specially prepared alternative-fuel vehicles in three gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) categories of the Sierra and the 3500-series Rally/Vandura full-size vans with the 5.7-liter V-8. Customers may choose the specific type of fuel or a combination of gasoline and natural gas or propane if they need multifuel capabilities.

We told you so. Exactly one year ago, the cover story for Ward's Auto World branded 1992 the "Year of the Light Trucks."

As things turned out, it was that and then some. In the 1992 model year, truck sales shot up from 4.1 million to 4.5 million, a very healthy 8.9% increase, while car sales dropped 2.4%, from 8.3 million to 8.1 million, says Ward's Automotive Research.

Cars, not trucks, are the problem as the industry tries to ignite an across-the-board recovery. "The shift toward trucks accelerated during the 1980s with the introduction of minivans and sport/utility vehicles (SUVs)," says Keith C. Macgee, general marketing manager for Ford Motor Co.'s Ford Div. "This year, having new products such as the (Ford) Explorer and the (Jeep) Grand Cherokee has further accelerated all of that. There are almost certainly other things we don't understand."

Mr. Macgee sees the truck share of the U.S. light-vehicle market growing from 33% to 35% by the end of the decade.

"All indications are that they (truck sales) will continue strong," says Kurt L. Ritter, marketing manager-trucks at General Motors Corp.'s Chevrolet Motor Div. "There are reasons the truck side will do better than the car side. "Ironically, he says, the economic demographics across the broad spectrum of new truck buyers is somewhat better than that of car prospects. "For (model year) '93, we think we're going to do as an industry almost 9% better at 5,050,000," estimates Craig Lechowicz, an analyst at GM's GMC Truck Div.

Just how important trucks have been to Chrysler Corp. is symbolized by a new advertising campaign being launched at the same time as the new LH sedans; it touts Chrysler as "The Minivan Company."

Everybody in the industry now concedes interesting and mysterious things are going on in the truck market that go well beyond the cliche that truck sales traditionally lead car volumes out of a recessionary sales period. That indicator developed when using the word trucks meant trucks in the traditional sense: heavy-duty pickups and commerical vans. Contractors and tradesmen were thought to feel the first impact of looser business purse strings as an economic recovery began.

Not many plumbing companies or roofing operations are buying red-hot sellers like fully loaded $25,000-and-up Jeep Grand Cherokees or Ford Explorers. And it's pretty much just plain folks, not commercial accounts, that allowed Chrysler to set an all-time record for minivan sales during the model year.

Full-size pickup trucks, where commercial accounts are important, jumped 14.2%, but compact pickups trailed the truck segment with a relatively anemic increase of only 0.8%.

Semantics as much as sales numbers have analysts going slowly berserk trying to explain what is happening. Cars are basically cars. But light trucks have become members of a category in which the customers are as diverse as the hodge-podge of vehicles covered by the grouping.

Who could have predicted pickup trucks that move down the freeway faster than Porsches? GMC still offers its super-fast Typhoon SUV, and Ford will weigh in shortly with a 5.8L V-8-powered Lightning F-150 pickup. Chrysler's '94 T 300 truck will have an optional V-10. And safety touches such as air bags have become crucial in selling minivans.

Price clearly is no object to a growing minority in the truck market, while experts say rebates and other marketing gimmicks continue as proven winners with people buying less-luxurious vehicles. Truck buyers also tend to be more interested in engine and drivetrain options than typical car buyers.

Given the broad and growing definition of just who might be a truck buyer, experts say the excitement should only grow. Few suggest anymore that baby boomers will outgrow all this, and there are strong indicators that selections from the truck market, even at luxury-car prices, are seen as stylishly practical.

"Trucksare the cool thing," laughs Chevy's Mr. Ritter.

What's new for '93?

In small SUVs, American Suzuki Motor Corp. may be on to something with the introduction of a 4-door, 4-wheel-drive version of its Sidekick. At a list price of $12,999, it may strike some as an attractive bargain compared with upscale brethren costing more than twice as much.

In sheer numbers, however, the Jeep Wrangler remains king with a 9.4% sales jump in '92. Little change is planned for '93. The same is true for the second-place Chevrolet Geo Tracker, which was down 3.6% for model year '92.

In the fiercely competitive midsize SUV market, American marques did a number on their Japanese counterparts in '92. Toyota's 4Runner was down 13.3% while the Mitsubishi Montero plunged 33.3%; the Ford-made Mazda Navajo drops 9.1%; the Nissan Pathfinder slides 10%; and the Isuzu Trooper loses a stunning 61.2%. But the Isuzu Rodeo is a clear winner for the Japanese makers by nearly doubling sales to 38,000, up 81 %.

New study predicts significant increase in cleaner engines, hybrid technology and self-shifting transmission by 2020

TIAX, a leading collaborative product and technology development firm, and Global Insight, the world's foremost industry forecasting firm, today released a study predicting vast changes in the powertrains of trucks, buses, and other large vehicles by 2020. The research indicates that new developments will result in engines that are simultaneously cleaner and more efficient. The study also predicts the greater use of self-shifting transmissions and hybrid heavy-duty vehicles.

The study, "The Future of Heavy-Duty Powertrains," is the first comprehensive analysis of the heavy-duty powertrain - the term used to describe the various engine and transmission technologies that power large vehicles. This special study was commissioned by a group of oil companies, engine and vehicle manufacturers, and component suppliers to investigate the impact of more stringent emissions regulations, increased traffic congestion, and a shortage of skilled drivers for large vehicles on the heavy-duty vehicle industry in North America, Europe, and Japan.

"Heavy-duty powertrains will undergo a revolution over the next 15 years," said J.R Linna, Principal in the Automotive Unit at TIAX. "Not only will the technical advances be remarkable but the pace of change will be so rapid that some of the technologies that are currently being deployed will be obsolete by 2020."

Key findings of the report include:

--A new kind of engine technology -- Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI)--will power nearly 40 percent of heavy-duty vehicles by 2020. HCCI engines offer high efficiency and low emissions. Unlike the traditional Diesel engine, HCCI emits almost no emissions of nitrogen oxides into the air. Nitrogen oxides are responsible for the creation of ozone, which can be harmful at ground level. Initially HCCI will only be able to power light loads at low speeds so early versions of the engine will also incorporate conventional Diesel combustion to supply more power when greater demand is placed on the engine. A full-mode HCCI engine that can meet all the demands placed on it by heavy-duty vehicles will eventually supersede the mixed-mode HCCI/Diesel technology. This finding is particularly significant in that the exhaust-gas treatment systems currently being developed and expected to reach the market in the next few years will start to become obsolete by 2020.

--By 2020, 15-25% of heavy-duty vehicles globally will incorporate either hybrid electric or hydraulic hybrid technology. The rapid deployment of hybrid technology in the heavy-duty vehicle industry can partly be attributed to the fact that commercial vehicle operators have regularly scheduled routes and can therefore accurately calculate how much money they will save on fuel and brake maintenance by investing in the more fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles.

--The demand for self-shifting transmission technology in heavy-duty vehicles will increase dramatically over the next 15 years. Because of increasing traffic congestion, concerns about the rising cost of fuel, and greater sensitivity to maintenance costs, a significant number of heavy-duty vehicles will feature self-shifting transmissions that maximize fuel efficiency. Additionally, the use of self-shifting transmissions will broaden the labor pool from which drivers can be recruited because trucks with automated or automatic transmissions are easier to drive.

"This study produced several unexpected findings, in particular that the HCCI engine will form a significant portion of the market by 2020," said Phil Gott, Director, Automotive Consulting at Global Insight. "There are many exciting innovations on the horizon and we believe that ultimately these new powertrain technologies will be implemented not because of government intervention, but rather because of the cost effectiveness and tangible business benefits that they will provide."

The report's conclusions were reached using a step-by-step objective methodology to project the market for powertrain technology. Factors such as the availability of crude oil, probable technical developments, predictions of emission control legislation, and the financial impact of new technologies on vehicle costs were all analyzed. Discussions with industry experts and an analysis of future market conditions for each technology were undertaken to further refine the forecasts of the report.

In its ongoing effort to reduce the time it takes for automotive repair shops to receive parts, Sacramento-based AUTOVIA announced that it has enhanced its parts ordering service to make it even easier and faster for repair shops to order and receive parts online.

With fewer screens, quicker response times and significantly faster stock check responses from vendor systems, AUTOVIA's service enables repair shops to streamline the process of locating and ordering parts from their local distributors. In addition, AUTOVIA is a free of charge service to the automotive repair shops.

"Reducing the time it takes to find the right part quickly from their preferred local sources is the number one priority for repair shops," said AUTOVIA's Founder and CEO Rod Georgiu, who also founded ALLDATA. "AUTOVIA's service automates the ordering process and allows repair shops to increase productivity, improve profitability and save time by checking inventory and placing orders to multiple distributors all at once."

The process is simple: Technicians and Service Writers log onto AUTOVIA's service and click on the year, make and model of the vehicle they are working on. Then they choose the parts they need. The AUTOVIA service automatically displays each local vendor's stock information on the desired parts. The customers then select the parts he wants and AUTOVIA processes the order instantly.

AUTOVIA also reduces the time it takes for repair shops to place an order by 70 percent and improves delivery time by as much as 20 minutes. These two important factors can eliminate delays in the ordering process that cut into a repair shop's profits.

"Seeing all of my distributors and their available inventory at once keeps me from having to call around town to find parts," said Lynne Cardwell of Car Care Center in Sacramento, Calif. "With AUTOVIA, we only have to spend two minutes on a stock check for all my (five) suppliers versus three to four minutes that I would normally spend on the phone with each one. This is a huge time-saver."

AUTOVIA's automated ordering process is also allowing distributors to dedicate more time to their customers as routine stock checks and orders are processed automatically. "It's a win-win for both distributors and repair shops," Georgiu said. "Distributors become more efficient when traditional time-consuming procedures such as stock checks and final orders are now processed automatically, freeing the counterman and boosting his productivity."

Distributors using AUTOVIA's services are reducing manual-order processing costs by as much as 75 percent and cutting the current manual cost of 10-12 percent down to 3 percent. Final orders print out automatically on the suppliers' existing invoice printers, which significantly reduce per order operating expenses as well as return rates for ordered parts.

"AUTOVIA has significantly improved our production and customer service," said distributor Sam Cracraft, of Sacramento Tires, Batteries and Accessories Company. "Several of our accounts have increased their monthly sales by more than 20 percent."

AUTOVIA's service is free of charge to repair shops. AUTOVIA provides free access to registered repair shops and fleets so that they can instantly compare parts availability among multiple distributors, quickly find the quality brands that they trust, provide them price information before they order, by part number, from each of their current local suppliers. Distributors pay a small transaction fee for each order they receive from registered customers. This minimal fee is significantly less than the 10-12 percent in extra costs that stem from processing orders by the traditional phone method. More importantly, the charge is only incurred when an order is actually accepted on the AUTOVIA network.

AUTOVIA is the first business-to-business e-Commerce company that provides repair shops with simultaneous access to multiple automotive and truck parts distributors. Launched in 1998, by a team of leading automotive industry experts, including Rod Georgiu, former CEO and founder of ALLDATA, AUTOVIA is backed by several venture funds, including Internet Capital Group (Nasdaq:ICGE), Crosspoint Ventures and Hearst Corporation. Its integrated web-based Electronic Parts Catalog includes more than 450 national brands. Based in Sacramento, AUTOVIA currently offers service in selected metropolitan markets and plans to expand into the nation's top markets.

CHICAGO--International Harvester Co., here, and General Automotive Corp. (GAC), Ann Arbor, Mich., together will be attempting to secure government contracts for military tactical trucks now that they have agreed to jointly develop the vehicles.

Thomas Dougherty, vice-president of marketing for International Harvester's truck group, said the two firms will initially work together to attempt to win an Army order for 3 1/2-ton medium tactical trucks. While the funding for such vehicles has not yet been approved, Dougherty said early estimates show that the government is expected to purchase about 30,000 vehicles over three years.

Because the Army has not yet issued the specifications on such vehicles, Dougherty said it has not yet been decided whether existing components from either firm's equipment could be modified to fill such an order or whether all-new component designs would be needed.

He also said it has not been determined whether existing facilities from either firm would be used for production if contracts were secured.

"It would depend largely on the size of the contract. If we got a contract for 30,000 vehicles, we probably couldn't fill it with our present facilities and would need a separate plant. If we got a smaller order, we might be able to fill it out of our present plants," he said.

While there are no specific plans to seek other government contracts or to jointly produce commercial vehicles, Dougherty said the two firms hope the agreement will serve as a basis on which they could develop and produce other special vehicles, both military and commercial.

Ronald Markwood, vice-president and general manager of General Automotive's government products division, said he expects development contracts to be awarded toward the end of this year, with production beginning in 1986 or 1987.

Markwood said the bidding will be competitive. General Motor's Coach & Truck division, General dynamics Corp.'s Land Systems division and Teledyne Inc. are expected to be among other competitors.

The venture with Harvester is also part of GAC's effort to expand its presence in transportation markets. In other moves, the firm has increased its market share of transit vehicles and entered into the touring coach market.

John Maddox, marketing manager for the Flxible bus manufacturing operation of GAC in Delaware, Ohio, said the firm recently introdced the Star Coach, a touring bus the firm hopes to sell to long-distance bus firms, such as Greyhound. Maddox said the firm received an order for 20 vehicles from a Los Angeles firm that will be providing transportation during the 1984 Olympics there.

The busesare being built as part of a joint venture with Wahl International of West Germany. The bodies will be built at the GAC-Ireland facility in Shannon, Ireland. That facility was purchased from Bombardier Inc., Montreal, last August Finishing of thevehicles will be in the U.S. GAC will continue to manufacture double-decker buses for the Irish Transit Authority there.

A prototype model of the coach has been sent to the U.S. for marketing purposes and the plant is currently producing the vehicles to meet the first order, the spokesman said.

In its Flxible bus unit, which the firm purchased from Grumman Allied Industries Inc., the spokesman said GAC has increased its market share from 12 to 30 percent in the past year. Orders which the firm either received or put in the low bid for totaled 855 vehicles in 1983, an improvement over the 1982 level. The spokesman said he could not supply comparable 1982 data.

The company's claimed improvement in market share has been won as the field of competitors for the limited orders available has become more congested. In addition to General Motor's Coach & Truck Division and Flyer Industries Ltd. of Winnepeg, the spokesman said several new foreign and domestic firms have entered the market.

New competition comes from Gillig corp. of Haywood, Calif., which had concentrated its efforts in the school and small bus market and now is attempting to grow in the transit market; Neoplan Co., LaMar, Col., a new German-based competitor, and Bus Industries of America, Oriskay, N.Y., a division of Ontario Bus industries Ltd., Mississauga, Ont. Also, he said Volvo and Scania, both of Sweden, and M.A.N. Bus of Germany have increased their presence in the U.S. bus market.

GAC executives attribute their success to a newly designed lighter bus which they said is more fuel-efficient and results in a lower "life cycle" cost. GAC spokesman said the firm has received several orders where it was not the lowest bidder but where the cost of operation was low enough to make GAC the lowest cycle producer.

Flxible buses sold by Grumman to some transit agencies have been the object of criticism, suffering from cracks in under-carriages and door frames and, most recently, problems with steering mechanism among many buses in use in New York City. However, the spokesman for GAC said the company has notbeen affected by these problems, since Grumman corrected the defects in 1981 before selling the unit to GAC. As reported, Grumman has sued Rohr Industries, from whom it bought Flxible in 1978, alleging that Rohr did not inform it of design problems or of inadequate road testing.

Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions for a Super-Efficient Family Car

Another casualty of Newt Gingrich's revolution shut its doors a year ago this past September. Before the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) disappeared, however, its staffers rushed to complete as many active projects as possible. The report reviewed here, Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions for a Super-Efficient Family Car, is a product of that final burst of effort. The full report did not, in fact, make it out the door completely; the 38-page Executive Summary is the only portion available in final printed form.(1)

This is the fifth in a series of studies conducted by OTA's Energy, Transportation and Infrastructure Program on the energy efficiency of light-duty vehicles.(2) The four earlier reports examined the use of alternative fuels, prospects for improving the fuel economy of new vehicles in the near term, vehicle retirement programs, and U.S. energy use in transportation, with particular emphasis on motor vehicles. This study brings together a wealth of valuable information about vehicle-related "enabling" technologies and candidly discusses the challenges of incorporating some of the more exotic of these approaches into mass-produced motor vehicles.

On the whole, the report encourages policymakers to keep expectations about the potential of breakthrough advances in passenger-car body structures or powerplants low. There are several reasons for doing so. Such advances often turn out not to be technically feasible. Even if they do prove to be technically feasible, they are not always commercializable. When an advance proves to be both technically feasible and commercializable, a considerable period of time still must elapse before it can have an impact on the average fuel economy of the passenger car fleet currently in use. Take, for example, the vehicle envisioned by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), a joint effort of the U.S. government and the automotive industry:(3)

[E]ven if the PNGV were fully successful - and OTA believes that its goals are extremely challenging - developing a manufacturable prototype by 2004 would likely yield an actual marketable vehicle no earlier than 2010. Furthermore, as noted, the first vehicles are likely to be small volume specialty segment vehicles, with entry into the true mass-market segments starting from three to five years later, depending on the market success of the new models. Finally, unless the first vehicles were overwhelmingly successful, the transformation of the new car and light truck fleets would take at least a decade. In other words, absent a crisis that would force a risky acceleration of schedules, it might be 2020 or 2025 before advanced vehicles had thoroughly permeated the new vehicle fleet - and it would be another 10 to 15 years before they had thoroughly permeated the entire fleet. Thus, major impacts of advanced technologies on national goals are decades away at best.(4)

Policymakers should take warnings like this one to heart. It is crucial that they and politicians, who are looking more than ever for quick, cheap, technological fixes to complicated problems, understand the difficulty of totally reinventing the automobile.

U.S. auto maker General Motors Corp. (GM), Japan's Isuzu Motors Ltd., and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. are in talks to set up a heavy-duty truck joint venture in China, a GM spokeswoman in China said Monday.

The spokeswoman said that a letter of intent "to explore possibilities" was signed in November among the three companies, and talks were still under way.

Over the weekend Japan's Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that Isuzu and its biggest shareholder, GM, plan to take a combined stake of just over 40% in a proposed truck-production venture to be established in Shanghai with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.

According to Dow Jones, Isuzu and GM would position the venture - expected to be established this summer - as the GM group's commercial- vehicle production base in China, the Dow Jones report said.

It also said the partners intend to produce 10,000 large trucks with a carriage capacity of some 10 metric tons per year at the joint venture from next year, increasing output to between 20,000 and 30,000 trucks in 2005.

New model is largest, most technically advanced hauler yet produced by Caterpillar; two 3500B engine blocks combined into one 24-cylinder engine

With all the attention given to Caterpillar's launch of compact equipment, it was almost easy to forget that what made the Peoria, Ill.-based company the dominant presence it is are big machines. In some cases, real big machines.

If anybody needed reminding of that fact, the company gave it to them recently as it officially rolled out its largest capacity mine haul truck, the 797. The new vehicle, which Cat said is its most technically advanced mine haul truck, has a nominal capacity of 360 tons and an operating weight of 1,230,000 lb.

Caterpillar said the 797 truck was a clean-sheet design, or perhaps more accurately, a clean-screen design, as it went from computer models to rolling vehicles in less than two years.

"This was the first time we used extensive computer modeling for designing a truck," said Michael A. Flexsenhar, vice president of the Caterpillar Inc., and general manager of the Mining and Construction Equipment Division. "After the program was approved, the truck went from concept to production in just 18 months. It is also the most technologically advanced truck we have ever built. It has a tremendous amount of onboard computing power."

Caterpillar designed the truck in response to mining companies seeking a means to reduce cost per ton in large-scale operations. The 797 truck is sized to work efficiently with loading shovels in the 80 to 90 ton per pass capacity used in larger, high-production mining operations. Caterpillar will match the body design of the 797 to the material being hauled to optimize payloads.

Currently there are two 797 trucks undergoing evaluation at Caterpillar's Arizona proving grounds. Mine evaluations were scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 1999. The company plans to have 19 trucks out for evaluation on a "follow-up" basis by the end of 1999. Availability in North America is scheduled for 2000, 2001 for the rest of the world.

The truck will be assembled in Caterpillar's Decatur, Ill., facility, which according to Caterpillar has the capacity to build 150 trucks per year.

The 797 haul truck is the latest step in Caterpillar's impressive march in the heavy mining markets. Fifteen years ago, the company was not a player in mining. Today, Cat boasts a line of nine rigid frame haul trucks ranging from the 41.1 ton capacity, 485 hp 769D truck to the new 797. The company also offers a line of six, 260 to 405 hp articulated haulers with two- and three-axle designs and capacities from 25 to 40 tons.

As always, during the initial design study that resulted in the 797 truck, Caterpillar reviewed several drivetrain options, including diesel-electric, which is used in virtually all competitive truck models over 150 tons. When the final design was approved however, Cat chose to stay with its traditional mechanical drivetrain, which it said is 75 to 85 percent efficient in the 797 truck.

In viewing the new 797 at the product launch, Cat was, as always, reticent to disclose specific component suppliers. As is true in most equipment these days, many of the components for the new 797 were designed in cooperation with Caterpillar, with Cat retaining full product support responsibility. What follows is what we were told by Cat or observed at the launch.

The 797 truck is powered by the new Caterpillar 3524B High Displacement diesel engine rated 3400 gross hp. The aftercooled engine has four turbochargers and features Electronic Unit Injection (EUI) technology, allowing it to meet year 2000 emissions regulations, Cat said. While the bore is the same, the stroke is 25 mm longer stroke than the standard 3500 series engine.

The engine incorporates two Caterpillar 3512B engine blocks connected back-to-front by the crankshaft with a spring coupling. Each bank of 12 cylinders uses a single ECM, which communicates with a single master engine ECM. The engine is designed, built, tested, installed and serviced as a single unit.

"This truck is by far the most advanced truck we have ever built in terms of electronic control," said Darragh Rooney, commercial support, large mining trucks for Caterpillar. "There are 142 channels of data monitored at any given time while the truck is operating."

In addition to controlling the engine overall, the master ECM also interfaces with the other electronic systems on the truck. Electronic controllers integrate engine information with mechanical powertrain information to optimize truck performance, extend component life and improve operator comfort, Cat said.

"Having a proven engine (3500 series) was key to developing this truck in just 18 months," said Flexsenhar. "The bulk of the engine development was connecting the two blocks together and converting it for a mobile application."

Engine accessories include a hydraulically driven, variable speed fan designed to provide more efficient cooling as well as reduce fuel consumption and noise levels. The pump providing flow to the 107 cc/rev variable speed fan motor has a maximum displacement of 190 cc/rev.

JV Will Also Source Components And Provide Engineering Services For Design, Development of Truck, Bus Products For International Truck And Engine Corporation

Navistar International Corporation (NYSE:NAV), North America's largest combined commercial truck, school bus and mid-range diesel engine producer, announced today that its operating company, International Truck and Engine Corporation, intends to enter into a joint venture with Mahindra & Mahindra of India to produce and market light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles for India and export markets.

The joint venture, to be named Mahindra International, will have 51 percent ownership by Mahindra and 49 percent ownership by International. The combined investment of the two companies will be more than $80 million over the next two to three years. The joint venture is subject to regulatory approval and the execution of definitive agreements.

Daniel C. Ustian, Navistar chairman, president and chief executive officer, said that the company's plan to enter the Indian market constitutes a major step in its global growth strategy.

"Equally important to our growth strategy is International's intention to use India as a significant supply base for sourcing components and materials," Ustian said. "In addition, the joint venture, along with Mahindra's group companies, will provide engineering services to International and the venture for the design and development of truck and bus products."

Ustian noted that as part of the joint venture, a development center will be opened at a yet-to-be determined location in India, which is expected to grow to 300 engineers.

Deepak (Dee) T. Kapur, president of International's truck group, said International believes that the Indian market for trucks is on the verge of exceptional growth.

"International looks forward to entering the market with a well-established leader in manufacturing and marketing light vehicles with a brand that stands for high quality, ruggedness, durability, reliability, easy maintenance and operational economy," Kapur said. "Our products and our people are well aligned and positioned for success."

Announcing the JV, Anand Mahindra, vice chairman & managing director, M&M, said: "The joint venture will enable us to rapidly develop into a full-line commercial vehicle player. It also provides the Mahindra group with a large opportunity for the supply of Engineering Services and Sourcing Services to a major North American commercial vehicle group."

Mahindra International is expected to produce commercial trucks and buses starting in 2007 in an updated Mahindra facility. The state-of-the-art factory will include cab assembly, vehicle assembly, and a paint shop. The vehicles will have 90 percent local content from the start due to the strong availability of quality parts and materials from Indian suppliers.

Following consummation of the transaction, Mahindra & Mahindra's commercial vehicle business will be transferred to the joint venture along with its line of light vehicles. The venture will use Mahindra & Mahindra's extensive distribution network to rapidly launch a full range of new medium and heavy commercial vehicles based on International's existing product platforms. The venture is also expected to export vehicles to many regions of the world through its own distribution channel, as well as International and M&M's overseas networks.

With this joint venture, Mahindra & Mahindra, the fourth largest Indian automotive manufacturer and a specialist in utility vehicles will extend its range to medium and heavy commercial vehicles after it recently announced plans for passenger cars. The market leader in India for SUVs, M&M plans to increase its market share of the vehicles market with its entry into medium and heavy commercial vehicles and passenger cars.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., the flagship company of the $2.5 billion Mahindra Group, is a leading manufacturer of multi-utility vehicles and tractors in India with interests in key sectors like infrastructure, information technology and financial services. With more than 55 years of manufacturing experience, the group has built a strong base in technology, engineering, marketing and distribution. M&M has six state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities totaling approximately 5.3 million square feet. Its sales and distribution network, the largest in the country, is geared to give the Mahindra customer a fulfilling brand experience.

Navistar International Corporation (NYSE: NAV) is the parent company of International Truck and Engine Corporation. The company through its affiliates produces International(R) brand commercial trucks, mid-range diesel engines and IC brand school buses and is a private label designer and manufacturer of diesel engines for the pickup truck, van and SUV markets. A wholly owned subsidiary offers financing services.

Toyota took a lot of heat when it entered the North American pickup truck market with the "slightly-less-than-full-size" Tundra. The Tundra, with its Camry-inspired interior and four-valve high-revving V-8 just didn't have the presence that die-hard American truck buyers look for. In those same four years, the domestic truck has grown up. Today's pickup truck sits tall with big shoulders and that ever-present 'belt buckle' out front. They've also grown inside, with most all pickups sporting back seats with either small access doors or full-size rear doors.

Toyota took this trend into account when designing the Tundra Double Cab. Instead of just stretching Tundra's frame and adding two more doors, engineers borrowed from the dimensions of Toyota's full-size Sequoia SUV, carrying over the hood and front fenders but giving the double cab a distinctive grille mid fascia. This gives the truck a more muscular look and the five-passenger seating and interior room of the large Sequoia. Because of the higher beltline, the bed on the Double Cab is four inches taller than the standard Tundra and 74.3 inches long.

The interior is a combination of Tundra and Sequoia pieces. Toyota engineers said that the goal was to carry over as much as possible. The 60-40-split rear scats fold and tumble forward allowing for access to two lined storage compartments under the floor. The scats are not removable, an idea that would make for even more storage space, but the seat latches can double as tie-downs when the seats are flipped forward.

The rear doors open forward on conventional hinges and the power rear windows go all the way down. There's an optional fully-opening moon roof and a power rear window.

An optional factory-installed DVD entertainment system is available with a 7-inch fold down screen integrated into the dome light assembly and headphone jacks mounted at the back of the center console. The combination CD-DVD drive is located in the center console. There is also a 12 Volt DC outlet and a 115 Volt AC outlet.

Tundra Double Cab sits on a 140.5-inch wheelbase with an overall length of 230 inches, live inches longer than the 2004 Ford F-150.

The Dana-supplied frame has been lengthened by 12.2 inches under the cabin area. Like all Tundras, the frame raft is made of rolled-C-channel in a continuous single steel stamping. Eight cross-members build in enough torsional rigidity to haul payloads up to 1,835 pounds and pull trailers up to 6,800 pounds. Tundra Double Cab Chief Engineer, Motoharu Araya stud that his team called on the experience of the engineers at Hino Motors, producer of large trucks in Japan, to help them beef up the Tundra Double Cab frame and suspension.

The double cab rides on a double-wishbone front suspension that has been reinforced for the larger truck. 12.5 inch ventilated front discs and 11.6 inch rear drums mount 265/6517 tires on six-lug alloy wheals.

The Tundra Double Cab comes with standard ABS and optional Vehicle Stability Control (VSC) + Traction Control (TRAC) system. New for 2004 is an automatic limited slip differential. The system uses VSC to transfer torque side-to-side across an axle more responsively than a fixed limited slip diff. By applying brake pressure to a slipping wheel, torque is transferred across that axle's differential to the other wheel.

All 2004, the Huntsville, Ala., engine assembly plant will supply all Tundra Double Cabs with the 4.7 Li-Force V-8, the same V-8 found in the Tundra, Sequoia, Land Cruiser and 4Runner. The twin-cam, four-valve engine puts out 240 hp at 4,800 rpm and 315 lbs.-ft, of torque at 3,400 rpm. The i-Force has a bore and stroke of 3.70 x 3.31 inches and a 9.6:1 compression ratio. The all-aluminum head has a pent-roof combustion chamber with a long narrow 21.5 inch included angle to improve volumetric efficiency.

Engine power is controlled by Toyota's ETCS-I (electronic throttle control with intelligence). ETCS-I improves emissions and fuel economy by optimally controlling the throttle angle using input from the accelerator pedal and ECU, replacing a cable-operated throttle. ETCS-I ,also integrates with the available VSC + TRAC and eliminates the need for separate idle-speed control and cruise control systems.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has declared that all light trucks and mini-vans up to 8,500 pounds, as well as all diesel-powered vehicles, must meet the same new, more stringent tailpipe standards as gasoline-powered passenger cars.

Dieselmakers say they did not expect their engines to be included in the Nov. 5 ruling, and were thus unprepared. They claim they presently cannot meet the new Low Emission Vehicle II (LEVII) standard, which basically halves present gasoline-engine emission levels. Under existing California levels, known as TLEV, gasoline-fueled light trucks were allowed to emit up to 2.5 times as much as cars.

The new LEVII regs will be phased in over three years, beginning in the 2004 model year. If vehicles do not meet LEVII, they will not be permitted for sale in California. Last year light trucks comprised nearly 45% of the 1.6 million new vehicles sold in the Golden State, with diesels accounting for 10% of the truck mix.

But a new generation of diesels, being readied by Cummins, Detroit Diesel, GM, Mercedes and Navistar, offer 40% fuel economy gains for sport-utilities and minivans as well as pickups. Automakers are counting on this technology to boost Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE).

However, the new diesels will still be unable to meet LEVII's ultra-strict levels of NOx (oxides of nitrogen, a particular problem with diesels and other lean-combustion engines). And they also face CARB's recent conclusion that their exhaust particulates are carcinogenic.

"If you eliminate diesels, you also eliminate the hybrids we're all developing," says Charlie Kitz, vice president of environmental and energy planning at DaimlerChrysler, who attended the meeting. "California is only concerned with the tailpipe, not fuel economy. But that's a huge concern, too."

The diesel-emissions ruling "just blindsided us," says Tim Leuliette, vice chairman of Detroit Diesel Corp. in Romulus, Mich. "We honestly weren't aware that anyone was supporting it." The solution, he says, is to go back to the table with CARB if possible. "This decision is clearly out of step with market and fuel-efficiency realities -- witness Europe's light diesel sales reaching 30% of the overall vehicle market," he notes.

Kitz commented that "there wasn't even a general recognition by CARB that trucks are used as tracks at least part of the time." He says the industry agreed there is a need to get trucks closer to cars' emission levels. But the LEVII ruling will stifle full-sized trucks' hauling performance, he claims.

"It appeared they (CARB) were not open to serious discussion," Kitz observes. "These rulings are so critical to us because the EPA is considering incorporating them into its upcoming Tier 2 regs." Those tougher standards are also expected in 2004.

More than 45,000 tons of steel per year will be required by Tower Automotive Inc. to make frames for the next-generation Dodge Dakota pickup trucks, which are scheduled for introduction by the Chrysler Group of DaimlerChrysler AG in mid-2004 for the 2005 model year.

Chrysler will purchase the steel itself and reallocate it to Tower, Chrysler sources here said.

Originally planned for introduction in 2003, the redesigned Dakotas are expected to be roomier inside and slightly bigger on the outside than their predecessors. They will require more steel to produce because of their size as well as the company's performance targets for safety and ride, a Chrysler executive said.

The Dakota frame business, expected to involve mainly hot-rolled steel, is thought to be worth close to $70 million annually to Tower Automotive, which is based in Grand Rapids, Mich. There will be a mix of stamped and hydroformed tubular steel components in the frames, Chrysler sources said, but stampings are expected to account for most of the applications. The frame design details have not yet been finalized, however.

Capturing the new Dakota frame business is important to Tower Automotive, which last year lost out to Magna International Corp., Aurora, Ontario, in the competition for the tubular steel-intensive frame business associated with Chrysler's next-generation Dodge Durango sport utility vehicles scheduled to be introduced next year.

Tower is one of the biggest independent steel parts-fabricating companies in North America, and most of its business is auto-motive. The company makes aluminum stampings and weldments, as well as steel stampings, tubular parts and subassemblies.

Suppliers of the steel for the new Tower-built Dodge Dakota pickup truck frames have not been chosen yet, and probably won't be until late next year. The steel suppliers involved with the Magna-built Durango frames have not been selected, either.

Fueled by tighter N[O.sub.x] and particulate emission standards in Tokyo, Yokohama and surrounding areas, to be followed by new national standards this autumn, Japanese truckmakers reported a 51 percent increase in sales last year to a six-year high of 248,397 units.

Demand rose more than 50 percent producing growth in all truck segments--light (2 to 6 tons gvw) medium (6 to 16 tons) and heavy duty (more than 16 tons)--with sales in the medium--and heavy-duty segments topping 110,000 for the first time since 1997. And increased demand, both in Japan and overseas, has resulted in an improved earnings picture.

Of the nation's four medium- and heavy-duty truck manufacturers (Hino Motors Ltd., Isuzu Motors Ltd., Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp. and Nissan Diesel Motor Co. Ltd.), all are forecasting profits in the fiscal year ending this March.

Hino, which reported mid-term net profits of $132.8 million, is projected to achieve earnings of $257.1 million for the flail fiscal year on 18 percent higher sales of $9.5 billion.

Isuzu is expected to report net income of $380.9 million, recovering from a record net loss of $1.4 billion in fiscal 2003, on four percent higher sales of $13.3 billion. In fiscal 2003, sales totaled $12.9 billion.

Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Fuso reported half-year income of $128.6 million, up six-fold over the same period in fiscal 2002, on 26 percent higher sales of $4.1 billion. For the full fiscal year, the Tokyo-based truck-maker, now owning 65 percent by DaimlerChrysler AG, is projecting earnings in excess of $285.7 million.

Even Nissan Diesel would be in the black if it had not taken a special restructuring loss of $571.4 million. As it is, the Tokyo-based affiliate of Nissan Motor Co. and Renault is expected to register a net loss of $419 million on 17 percent higher sales of $4.2 billion.

Against this backdrop, Isuzu and Mitsubishi Fuso finished a strong one, two with calendar 2003 sales of 76,933 and 73,447 units. They were followed by Hino at 45,156, Nissan Diesel at 21,345 and Toyota Motor Corp. at 18,614 (see Table 3). Isuzu, owning 12 percent by General Motors Corp., registered the largest percentage growth of 63 percent.

Analysts attribute the year's upturn to changes in the nation's regulatory environment with respect to N[O.sub.x] and particulate emissions. New, stricter regulations for trucks over 2.5 tons gvw are scheduled to take effect in October 2004. These follow tighter N[O.sub.x] and particulate regulations in Tokyo, Yokohama and surrounding areas which took effect last October and subject truckowners to fines for failing to equip their vehicles with particulate filters.

The Tokyo regulations require truck owners to reduce N[O.sub.x] and particulate emissions to 4.5 g and 0.25 g per kW/hr. The new national standards will require N[O.sub.x] and particulate matter emissions to be lowered to 3.38 g and 0.18 g per kW/hr. Then again in October 2006, the national standards will be tightened further to 2.0 g for N[O.sub.x] and 0.027 g for particulates.

Because of the tighter regulatory environment, analysts feel that demand for medium and large trucks will hold steady at around 100,000 units for the next two years, then fall back again to 70,000-unit levels in 2006--unless the Japanese economy recovers by then, in which case demand would likely hold at current 100,000-unit levels.

The American Trucking Associations warned in a September letter to Congress that within a few years there will be an additional 2.3 million trucks mixing with automobile traffic on congested highways. The way to counter this, said ATA, is to give states the power to permit longer, heavier highway rigs to operate within their borders.

The ATA made this request in the form of a letter protesting legislation that it said would "purloin state authority and impose federal truck length and weight limits on the 159,000 miles of interstate and primary highways." Why the ATA would send such a letter was a mystery to some, since it would seem to support the railroads' position that highways are getting dangerously congested and that much truck freight needs to be moved to rail, with the help of the kind of government aid that has long gone to highways.