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As the Grateful Dead once sang, "What a long strange trip it's been." It won't be long before 2003 will enter into its rightful place in the annals of automotive history. It was a year that saw both natural and man-made disasters, from the tornado that hit GM's Oklahoma truck plant to the blackout that left the entire northeastern U.S. powerless.

It was a UAW contract year, with negotiations that were, as one analyst put it, "kind of scary," with the union and Big 3 coming to a very quiet and uneventful agreement. While 2003 had its share of excitement, auto analysts say that what will make 2003 important is that it sets the stage for the future of the domestic Big 3 as they dig in, trying to find a way to stop their market share erosion.

Automotive Industries sat down with industry analysts to get a glimpse of what's to come in the short term. Will 2004 be equally as interesting as 2003 was?

Production

Analysts predict another strong production year, with North America looking at 16.5 to 17 million units, spurred on by less economic uncertainty on the consumer side and an increase in merchandise as both domestic and transplant OEMs add new models to their lineups.

Dave Andrea, director, forecasting group for the Center for Automotive Research, says that it's always hard to predict a softening of sales or production in an election year.

"I think there's only been one or two in history where an election year has given you softer auto sales," Andrea says.

Incentive's will again play a major roll in 2004 as the Big 3 fight to control market share. Michael Robinet, vice president, global forecasting services for CSM WorldWide, sees incentives heating up in certain areas, like full-size pickups. He says that both DaimlerChrysler and General Motors will be under a lot of pressure from Ford Motor Company and Nissan who are both coming to market with new full-size pickups.

# posted by Medical Information : 3:41 AM