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DETROIT -- Ten years from now, aluminum will be used in half of all engine blocks produced each year for passenger cars, and 20 percent of all blocks manufactured annually for trucks in North America, according to a new projection.

Currently, no more than 10-11 percent of all engine blocks used each year in North American-built cars are made of aluminum, and the number of aluminum blocks in light-duty truck engines is virtually nil.

The new projection is included in Delphi VIII: Forecast and Analysis of the North American Automotive Industry, from the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation (OSAT), a division of the Transportation Research Institute at the University of Michigan.

According to a number of automotive and aluminum industry executives, that will add more than 300 million pounds, net, to the yearly market for secondary aluminum casting alloys, such as A319.1 and A380.1, as it exists today.

In its latest Delphi forecast, OSAT points out that cast iron will be victimized by the auto industry's increasing use of aluminum in engine cylinder blocks, but notes that 75 percent of the aluminum blocks produced in the year 2005 are expected to use iron sleeves. Sleeves often represent a 20-25 pound application per engine.

The new Delphi forecast supports what many auto industry analysts and observers have been saying about the growing importance of the block market to the aluminum industry, including smelters and scrap dealers, and makes those observations more credible.

OSAT publishes its Delphi automotive forecasts and analyses biennially, in three volumes covering materials, technology, and marketing.

All three volumes are based on surveys of automotive industry executives, and the eighth editions, Delphi VIII, of the materials and technology volumes are scheduled for release Jan. 8.

An advance 136-page copy of the materials volume in draft form provides the forecast for aluminum blocks noted Above, as well as many more predictions for automotive material applications in the future.

Among the most noteworthy forecasts are these:

* Steel will continue as the dominant material in body and structural applications for North American-built cars and trucks through 2005, at least. Only small gains for aluminum and plastics in the body panel and frame markets are forecast.

* Aluminum will continue to make progress, however, in certain chassis components, such as wheels and suspension system control arms, at the expense of steel.

# posted by Medical Information : 5:57 AM