Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Japanese truck makers face difficult future - Asia Report

Against the backdrop of this year's Tokyo Motor Show, with its upbeat focus on future technologies, Japanese truckmakers face an ominous present.

Based on six-month sales results projected over the full year, demand for trucks (2 tons and over GVW) is on target to drop 10 percent from last year's low level of 176,647 units. In 2001, sales fell 6 percent.

And while demand for medium- and heavy-duty trucks (above 6 tons GVW) held steady at 80,122 units last year, sales in this critical segment were on course halfway through 2002 to fall below 75,000, a mere fraction of the 1990 peak of 193,300.

Analysts see little chance of near-term recovery, leading some to conclude there are too many producers. Considered most vulnerable at this juncture are Isuzu Motors Ltd. and Nissan Diesel Motor Co., the nation's second and fourth largest producers.

In fiscal 2001, Isuzu reported its third consecutive yearly loss: $358 million. As a result, the General Motors Corp. affiliate was forced to sell GM part of its profitable diesel engine operations in the U.S. and Poland, DMAX Inc. and Isuzu Motors Polska Sp.Zo.o, respectively. As part of the deal, Isuzu had to recapitalize with the U.S. automaker reducing its equity stake from 49 percent to 12 percent.

Meanwhile, Nissan Diesel, which eked out a small Y$5.1 million profit--its second since posting a $6 million deficit in fiscal 1999--is considered likely to go back into the red this year. Analysts forecast a $8.3 million loss for the affiliate of Renault S.A. and Nissan Motor Co. due in part to a still-heavy debt load.

Elsewhere, Hino Motors Ltd. reported an $70 million profit, its first since fiscal 1997. The Toyota Motor Corp. subsidiary, having completed the bulk of a comprehensive restructuring initiated several years ago, is projected to match fiscal 2001 results in the current business year with net earnings of $71 million on sales of $6.9 billion, up nine percent over last year's level.


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