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Light trucks keep growin'

Distinguishing between what's a car and what's a light truck these days is something perhaps best left to statisticians. If it has wheels and they like it, most Americans could care less.

Minivans, the hottest "trucks' going, seldom are purchased to cart commercial cargoes. Kids, canines and camping gear are more like it--the same as cars and station wagons. Minivans were practically unknown only five years ago, but they are heading for the million mark in annual sales, much of it at the expense of traditional cars.

That's only part of the picture. Sportutility vehicles--SUVs as they now are increasingly and unglamorously called--that are macho in image but yuppie in amenities are becoming as common as mile-markers on the nation's freeways, if not off-road.

With up to a half-million buyers switching annually from cars to light trucks, plus increasing affluence and a trend toward three-vehicle households, the torrid U.S. light-truck market promises to boom along well into the early 1990s.

Chrysler Corp. Chairman Lee A. Iacocca sees 1988 car sales running a flat-to-lower 10-million units, but his crystal ball spots 4.9-million trucks compared to a record 4.8 million for '87.

Rosy short- and longer-term truck sales projections are welcome news for domestic manufacturers because they stand to benefit most, ironically at the expense of the Japanese, who generally are credited with reviving consumer interest in light trucks as a means of offsetting volume restrictions of Japanese car imports.

Overall, U.S. new truck sales--including medium- and heavy-duty rigs--are expected to climb, on a trend-line basis, to a whopping 5.2-million domestic and imported models annually by 1991-92.

Light trucks alone, on a business cycle basis, are pegged for growth by Wharton/ Ward's Automotive Research Group (WWA) to 4.745 million in 1990 from 4.6 million this year. "The lion's share of this North American demand growth (is) expected to be captured by domestic manufacturers, since import sales from Japan are expected to be hampered by continued appreciation of the yen,' the group concludes.

WWA sees imported small pickups-- the most price-sensitive light-truck segment --accounting for a smaller share of what essentially will be a stable market through 1990 as the Japanese begin to move up-market in light trucks to offset their cost disadvantage.

Concurring in that scenario is Jerome B. York, Chrysler Motors Corp. vice president of Truck Operations. He tells Ward's Auto World the small pickup market will remain essentially flat over the next five years at 1.4-million units annually, despite major growth for truck sales overall during the same period.

Chrysler's goal is to increase its share of the total U.S. truck market well past the 20% targeted for model year '88--in itself a hefty 1-million vehicles. Mr. York believes that is achievable now that Chrysler has acquired Jeep along with its American Motors Corp. merger. Chrysler's market share for the '87 model year through August is 19.3% (including Jeep's 4%) vs. 8.7% as recently as model year '83 and 12.5% in 1986. Ford Motor Co.'s share, Mr. York points out, fell to 29.2% from 31.4%, while Chevrolet Div. plummeted to 23.5% from 31.1% in the last five years.

To combat rising prices and a decline in buyers under 35 (prime purchasers of sporty compact pickups), Chrysler sees the Japanese producers beginning to "upsize' their compact pickups to about the same dimensions as the midsize Dodge Dakota. It also appears likely that General Motors Corp. and Ford will be forced to follow suit. But lack of powertrain components, as well as a market for the vehicles outside North America, will keep the Japanese from moving all the way up to full-size pickups, a segment that Mr. York says may stabilize at around 1 million annually vs. 1.2 million to 1.3 million now.

Equally bullish, is Chevrolet Motor Div.'s Sales Manager-Truck John Kelly, who forecasts rising truck sales through at least 1990, reaching a peak of about 5.2 million per year.

Fueling his optimism is a growing segment of the population that has shifted from passenger cars to light trucks, especially compact models, used as either primary or secondary vehicles. Although now 12 months old, Chevy data indicating that about 500,000 buyers are switching from cars to trucks each year probably is still valid, says Mr. Kelly.

Small vans and SUVs are especially attractive as crossovers because "buyers don't perceive these vehicles as trucks,' he suggests. Front-drive "people vans' from GM and Ford, joining pioneer Chrysler, will reinforce that trend among car owners. GM's MPV--multipurpose van--is scheduled for 1989 introduction and Ford, jointly with Nissan Motor Co. Ltd., likely will join the parade by 1991-92.

These new car-like minivans, however, will not have much impact on current rear-drive small vans like the Chevy Astro that are designed for more rugged use such as pulling large loads, he predicts.

# posted by Medical Information : 2:08 AM